Job Description

Responsibilities

Forecast Development:

Analyze total Brand demand plan at the major category level (Skincare, Makeup) to identify any risks or opportunity, and drive decisions to close any gaps identified. Analyze total key launches at the Brand level to ensure sufficiency and reasonability of new launches' demand plan, and drive actions to close any gaps identified. Generate demand plans for assigned brands, ensuring alignment with business objectives. Validate Cluster demand trends and key sales driver assumptions, entering accurate inputs into forecasting systems for effective modeling and analysis. Conduct monthly reviews of demand trends and sales driver assumptions to ensure the accuracy and reasonableness of demand plans across multiple aggregation levels, factoring in different sales channels. Maintain robust demand plans by optimizing the use of statistical forecasting models and incorporating relevant sales drivers for assigned brands. Ensure timely adjustments based on emerging sales trends, with a particular focus on new product launches and market fluctuations.

Forecast Alignment:

Accountable for ensuring a comprehensive view of demand across both Basic and New SKUs. Lead Brand Consensus meetings and selected IBP, providing insights into demand trends, validating sales driver assumptions, and sharing scenario planning based on risk and opportunity assessments. Lead the gap management process during Brand Consensus and selected IBP to address variances between demand plans, supply plans, and Latest Estimates (LE) and capturing major differences as part of risk and opportunity management. Implement a standardized process for sales driver reviews, ensuring the most accurate and current market intelligence is integrated into the demand plans. Work closely with Brand General Managers to resolve demand imbalances and shape demand, particularly in scenarios of constrained supply. Prepare detailed reports, scenarios, and recommendations to support the IBP on a monthly basis, and provide insights to the IBP as needed. Escalate key insights and exceptions of Major Category/Heroes/New Launches/Channels at the Brand level to drive decisions to close any exceptions. Collaborate with brand/commercial teams to manage and shape demand if/when required.

KPI & Process Improvement Management:

Act as a subject matter expert in systems (e.g. o9, AFO, Power BI), leading all systems training and enhancement initiatives within the Brand cluster. Act as a subject matter experts in processes (e.g. DP-Retail trend analysis, promo reconciliation), educating cross-functional teams within the Brand cluster. Review reasonability of Cluster/Major Category Statistical forecast on a rolling 12 months' basis, and partner with Stats team to drive ongoing improvements Develop and improve processes, tools and reports to drive continuous improvements and collaborations within the Brand cluster. Oversee the management of key demand planning metrics such as WFA, Bias, Attainment and FVA for the assigned brands. Identify and implement improvement initiatives to enhance WFA performance by optimizing the adoption of statistical forecasting and sales drivers, conducting root-cause analyses to address gaps

Requirements

Bachelor Degree in Business, Supply Chain or relevant disciplines 8 years relevant experience

Description

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Qualifications

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